By: Brahmani Nutakki, Harshita Magroria, Sukhada Gole
This article documents how we discovered in November 2020 the conditions for a significant risk of a surge in infections in Mumbai and Delhi existed. We could not be sure about the timing becuase that depended on future unknowable efforts to contain the spread. Our worst fear was it might happen as soon as January 2021 following the relaxation of controls for the festive season.
The timeline in Exhibit 1 shows how our work on predictive modelling was anticipating what we are seeing now.
Timeline of our models
Then when the surge…
By Farrah Farnejad, Maurice Glucksman, Alan Patrick and Dr Kim Warren
You may be wondering: Why is a 70% more infectious mutation of Covid 19 cause for the Government to immediately declare a Tier 4 emergency in London? 70% is not certain but if it is verified the consequences can be explosive. We believe the Government acted prudently.
This very dense chart shows what happens in Westminster if a 70% more infectious mutation takes over. If you don’t want to bother with the chart, you can sum it up as: a triple whammy. …
Analysis of the mid size town of Swindon indicates vigilance for another 4 weeks post the current 4 week lockdown combined with vaccines could cut Covid deaths and subsequent suffering from Long Covid by more than 70%
By Maurice Glucksman¹ and Kim Warren¹
When a four-week Lockdown was announced on November 3rd we launched a challenge for young people to use our modelling tools to answer the question: What does the lockdown need to achieve in My local area?
To help the competitors focus their analysis we have produced a case study of Swindon and reviewed the results in detail…
By: Harshita Magroria, Sukhada Gole, Sonam Maske, Viraj Shende, Yashashree Rane¹
This article shows why we are very concerned about a large scale second wave in Mumbai non-slums triggered by the Festive Season celebrations in the next few weeks. We also offer a forward view of into 2021. See our videos in Hindi and English. We have written it to share with our fellow citizens, healthcare workers and leaders in our community our work since August 2020 as we completed our Fellowship with The Praja Foundation. …
The Covid 19 Localisation Modelling Group aims to support education and provide analytic tools for local actions managing Covid 19