If Covid 19 in London is 70% more infectious it’s a triple whammy

  1. In chart 1 the mutation more than doubles the scale of projected reported cases/day from 80 to 180 in February. But to see the real situation you must measure the invisibles. If we could measure actual cases per day feeding the total infections in charts 4 and 5 it would peak at 2300 or 13x the number reported
  2. In chart 2 without the mutation and no actions vaccines could save 100 deaths. With extra vigilance 250 lives could be saved
  3. In chart 3 with the mutation we project the vaccine will come too late to impact the deaths unless the spread is slowed down. With the mutation everything moves faster. Vaccines save 55 deaths. With extra vigilance 275 saved
  4. In chart 4 peak infections circulating with no mutation is 15,000 in February: 6% of the population. In chart 5 with mutation about 33,000 people in Westminster will be circulating infected: 13% of the population. That on its own more than doubles the risk of being infected on top of the 70% for a combined infection risk up 3.7x compared with no mutation in February. Many of these infections would not happen with no mutation because more vaccinations would happen. So on top of the 70% that’s the double whammy.
  5. In chart 5 vaccines at current rate of availability are not a solution but vigilance can give them time to act and this results in a much lower infection rate
  6. in chart 6 severe cases at home double with the mutation. That is partly because there are a limited number of hospital beds in our model and a certain percentage of people infected do not seek hospital care. When infection rates explode this constraint limits hospital admissions and more people just decide to stay home. Severe cases at home are at least twice as likely to die than people with hospital care. That’s the triple whammy

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Farrah Farnejad is a second year student of Global Health at Queen Mary University of London & winner of The Covid 19 Youth Modelling Competition for her model of Westminster used to produce the analysis in this article

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The Covid 19 Localisation Modelling Group

The Covid 19 Localisation Modelling Group

The Covid 19 Localisation Modelling Group aims to support education and provide analytic tools for local actions managing Covid 19