We lost faith in what the Models were telling us and now the Covid 19 surge we feared is happening

A Comparative Analysis of Mumbai & Delhi

By: Brahmani Nutakki, Harshita Magroria, Sukhada Gole

Comparison between the characteristics of Mumbai and Delhi
Comparison between the characteristics of Mumbai and Delhi
Table 1: Comparison between the characteristics of Mumbai and Delhi
The Blue lines are the relatively faster speed of the outbreak in the slums, the Orange lines are the relatively slower outbreak in the non-slum neighbouhoods of L Ward
Total susceptibles in Mumbai and Delhi
Total susceptibles in Mumbai and Delhi
Table 2: Total susceptibles in Mumbai and Delhi
  1. The muddle of averages of slums and non-slums in Delhi is misleading the authorities.
  2. The decline in cases has misled the medical authorities thus it is vital to ensure strict adherence to COVID-19 guidelines.
  3. There are fewer insights about the advent of reinfections, making the study of total susceptibles important in assessing the impact of the virus.
  1. The models of Delhi and Mumbai predict a considerably lower susceptible count in the months of January-February 2021 indicating a higher infection count of the COVID-19 virus.
  2. The total deaths registered might be a deflated count of the actual deaths that have occurred in Delhi and Mumbai.
Comparison between the prominent insights from Delhi and Mumbai
Comparison between the prominent insights from Delhi and Mumbai
Table ³¹⁴: Comparison between the prominent insights from Delhi and Mumbai
  1. Conduct health protocol awareness drives with help of community leaders.
  2. Incentivize adherence to hygiene measures by positive nudge or penalties.
  3. Rigorously record reinfections in the locality.
  4. Use the model to make better estimates of total susceptibles, total infections and deaths.
  5. Large-scale execution of vaccination drive while working to eliminate vaccine hesitancy.
  1. Centre Releases Rs 17,287 Crore As States Seek Funds To Fight Covid-19”, https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-outbreak/centre-releases-rs-17287-crore-as-states-seeks-funds-to-fight-covid-19
  2. Testing must for those negative on antigen test in Delhi: Harsh Vardhan”, https://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi-news/testing-must-for-those-negative-on-antigen-test-in-delhi-harsh-vardhan/story-8GAZa2c0uKoWCzICtlnXyH.html
  3. Covid-19 in Mumbai: BMC relies more on antigen tests since September”, https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/covid-19-in-mumbai-bmc-conducting-more-antigen-tests-than-rt-pcr/story-sm8uKhLT6XaqZ5kdFnq0II.html
  4. 57% of Mumbai slum dwellers have Covid antibodies: Sero survey”, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/57-of-mumbai-slumdwellers-have-covid-antibodies-sero-survey/articleshow/77231640.cms
  5. A Second Wave imminent in Mumbai? Implications for Covid 19 from L Ward”, https://medium.com/@info_33771/second-wave-of-covid-19-mumbai-implications-from-l-ward-dba865c5203f
  6. Mumbai: Zero new Covid-19 cases in Dharavi second time”, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mumbai-zero-new-covid-19-cases-in-dharavi-second-time/articleshow/80410255.cms
  7. Mumbai: No test, only quarantine for asymptomatic contacts”, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mumbai-no-test-only-quarantine-for-asymptomatic-contacts/articleshow/75150122.cms
  8. 13,000 more deaths in Mumbai this year between March & September”, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/13k-more-deaths-in-city-this-year-between-march-sept/articleshow/78920631.cms
  9. 29% of Delhi has antibodies for Covid-19: Second serosurvey”, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/29-of-delhi-has-antibodies-for-covid-19-second-sero-survey/story-JE4rKi7lMDYaOgAacWoCVK.html
  10. https://delhifightscorona.in/
  11. Delhi govt continues to under-report COVID-19 death, LN Hospital has 230 deaths, AIIMS 65”, https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/delhi-govt-continues-to-under-report-covid-19-death-ln-hospital-has-230-deaths-aiims-65
  12. “No tests for asymptomatic patients in Delhi now”, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/no-tests-for-asymptomatic-persons-in-delhi-now/articleshow/76183062.cms
  13. COVID-19: What You Need To Know To Interpret the Sero-Survey Results Right”, https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/covid-19-icmr-delhi-mumbai-seroprevalence-surveys-results-confidence-interval-statistical-significance/
  14. 2nd serosurvey in Mumbai shows fall in the level of antibodies among slum dwellers”, https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/2nd-sero-survey-in-mumbai-shows-fall-in-level-of-antibodies-among-slum-dwellers-6664156/
  15. About Variants of the Virus that Causes COVID-19​​”, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html
  16. Wondering what the new coronavirus strain is all about? A doctor explains | Lifestyle News, The Indian Express
  17. 116 people infected with UK variant of Covid-19 in India: Government”, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/116-people-infected-with-uk-variant-of-covid-19-in-india-government/article33587916.ece

The Covid 19 Localisation Modelling Group aims to support education and provide analytic tools for local actions managing Covid 19